Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ETHIOPIAN · FLIGHT ET 3501 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 10

ET 3501 · LAX → OSL

departs 7:32 PM PT · arrives 2:26 PM CEST

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at OSL more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OSL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OSL

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at LAX that day

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

OSL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ET 3501 · LAX → OSL

Odds over time

How late will it get to OSL?