HU 496 · SEA → PEK

departs 11:00 AM PT · arrives 2:56 PM CST

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at PEK more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PEK?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PEK

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PEK (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

HU 496 · SEA → PEK

Odds over time

How late will it get to PEK?