Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4124
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 10 Today
MQ 4124 · MID → DFW
departs 1:38 PM CST · arrives 6:01 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MID
Weather at each end
MID (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.