Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 186 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

Saturday, October 10

WN 186 · STL → LGA

departs 8:57 AM CT · arrives 12:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 154h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Saturday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

Typical odds come from past years’ weather on this date, so there are no forecast drivers yet.

Weather at each end

Too early for a weather forecast for Sat, Oct 10. These odds use the weather this date has had in past years; the forecast for STL and LGA appears here about 3 days before departure.

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 186 · STL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?