Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 581 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

Saturday, October 10

WN 581 · LAS → OAK

departs 6:46 PM PT · arrives 8:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 166h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Saturday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

Typical odds come from past years’ weather on this date, so there are no forecast drivers yet.

Weather at each end

Too early for a weather forecast for Sat, Oct 10. These odds use the weather this date has had in past years; the forecast for LAS and OAK appears here about 3 days before departure.

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 581 · LAS → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?