Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AEROMÉXICO CONNECT · FLIGHT 5D 2722
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
5D 2722 · MTY → DTW
departs 1:34 PM CST · arrives 7:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Mon 10/12 21%
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15 23%
Fri 10/16 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MTY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DTW that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
1pm departures from MTY are usually not late
Weather at each end
MTY (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.21 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.