9E 5102 · LGA → OMA

took off 1:57 PM ET · expected to land 3:31 PM CT (scheduled 1:50 PM ET → 3:53 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OMA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.28 in

OMA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5102 · LGA → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?