9E 5321 · ROA → LGA

took off 7:38 AM ET · expected to land 8:36 AM ET (scheduled 7:02 AM ET → 8:35 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGA?

LIVE

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 3.3 in of rain forecast at ROA that day

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ROA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip4.02 in

LGA (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.93 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5321 · ROA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?