Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5412 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Yesterday

9E 5412 · DTW → FWA

departs 12:31 PM ET · arrives 1:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FWA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DTW that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 12pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

↓ FWA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.17 in

FWA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5412 · DTW → FWA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FWA?