Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 516 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 11 Today

9K 516 · JFK → MVY

departs 11:09 AM ET · arrives 12:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MVY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip1.01 in

MVY (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.37 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 516 · JFK → MVY

Odds over time