Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 516 LANDED 10:06 AM ET, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 11 Today

9K 516 · MVY → JFK

took off 8:56 AM ET · landed 10:06 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MVY (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.46 in

JFK (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 516 · MVY → JFK

Odds over time