AA 1461 · ORD → FLL

took off 8:08 AM CT · expected to land 11:45 AM ET (scheduled 7:59 AM CT → 12:15 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FLL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.2 in of rain forecast at FLL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1461 · ORD → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?