AA 1478 · FLL → PHL

took off 4:00 PM ET · landed 6:23 PM ET (scheduled 2:38 PM ET → 5:29 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.18 in

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling520 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.88 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1478 · FLL → PHL

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHL?