AA 1614 · LAS → PHL

departs 12:15 PM PT · arrives 8:07 PM ET

Your aircraft is N422AN (A21N), coming in as AA 1132 from DFW: landed 10:43 AM PT.

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
29%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
22%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ Gusts to 35 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at LAS that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts35 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.12 in

PHL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1614 · LAS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?