AA 1991 · SLC → ORD

took off 11:52 AM MT · expected to land 3:23 PM CT (scheduled 11:51 AM MT → 4:04 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 35 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at SLC that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ 11am departures from SLC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts35 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.50 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1991 · SLC → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?