AA 2051 · PHX → BFL

took off 10:37 AM MT · landed 11:44 AM PT (scheduled 10:09 AM MT → 11:46 AM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BFL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±6 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BFL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BFL

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.40 in

BFL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2051 · PHX → BFL

Odds over time

How late did it get to BFL?