AA 2521 · YYC → DFW

took off 7:47 AM MDT · expected to land 11:51 AM CT (scheduled 6:44 AM MDT → 11:28 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

98% chance · ±0 pts −40 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
2%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
72%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at YYC that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

YYC (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2521 · YYC → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?