AA 2720 · LGA → FLL

took off 8:17 AM ET · expected to land 11:21 AM ET (scheduled 8:01 AM ET → 11:05 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

76% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to FLL?

LIVE

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
55%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.2 in of rain forecast at FLL that day

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at LGA that day

↑ Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.91 in

FLL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2720 · LGA → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?