AA 3256 · PHX → SBA

departs 11:03 AM MT · arrives 12:48 PM PT

Your aircraft is N103US (A320), coming in as AA 634 from MSN: landed 10:09 AM MT.

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

57% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from PHX are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.46 in

SBA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3256 · PHX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?