AA 417 · DFW → PHL

departs 7:26 AM CT · arrives 11:52 AM ET

Your aircraft is N989AU (A321), coming in as AA 2266 from SAN: landed 11:35 PM CT.

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip1.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 417 · DFW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?