AA 442 · BOS → MCO

took off 9:19 AM ET · landed 12:17 PM ET (scheduled 8:48 AM ET → 12:10 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BOS that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.18 in

MCO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 442 · BOS → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?