AA 650 · PHL → MCO

took off 1:05 PM ET · landed 3:14 PM ET (scheduled 12:52 PM ET → 3:32 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.84 in

MCO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 650 · PHL → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?