tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9817 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Yesterday

AA 9817 · LHR → JFK

departs 9:24 AM BST · arrives 12:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
41% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 6.2d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to JFK?

  1. On time or early
    55%
  2. 15–30 min late
    14%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    11%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    8%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    6%
  6. Cancelled
    6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.