AC 540 · SEA → YYZ

took off 8:05 AM PT · expected to land 3:00 PM EDT (scheduled 8:15 AM PT → 4:06 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to YYZ?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at YYZ that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 540 · SEA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?