AC 738 · SFO → YYZ

took off 8:48 AM PT · expected to land 4:15 PM EDT (scheduled 8:47 AM PT → 4:52 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to YYZ?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at YYZ that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ YYZ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 738 · SFO → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?