AF 378 · CDG → DTW

took off 4:21 PM CEST (scheduled 4:05 PM CEST → 6:40 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DTW that day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CDG

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CDG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 378 · CDG → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?