AF 53 · IAD → CDG

took off 10:26 PM ET · landed 10:54 AM CEST (scheduled 9:51 PM ET → 10:50 AM CEST)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at CDG more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to CDG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ 9pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into CDG at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip2.08 in

CDG (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 53 · IAD → CDG

Odds over time

How late did it get to CDG?