AF 84 · CDG → SFO

took off 10:31 AM CEST (scheduled 10:20 AM CEST → 12:32 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CDG

Weather at each end

CDG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 84 · CDG → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?