AF 8 · CDG → JFK

took off 4:45 PM CEST (scheduled 4:30 PM CEST → 7:27 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

78% chance · ±3 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
32%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
17%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CDG

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

CDG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 8 · CDG → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?