AM 481 · LAS → MEX

took off 1:37 PM PT · landed 5:59 PM CST (scheduled 1:36 PM PT → 6:18 PM CST)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MEX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 1pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ AM's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip1.04 in

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 481 · LAS → MEX

Odds over time

How late did it get to MEX?