AM 641 · BOS → MEX

took off 10:16 AM ET · expected to land 1:20 PM CST (scheduled 10:07 AM ET → 1:54 PM CST)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 10am departures from BOS are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BOS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.18 in

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 641 · BOS → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?