Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Sunday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 740 CANCELLED

Sunday, October 11 Yesterday

AS 740 · SFO → SAN

departs 10:39 AM PT · arrives 12:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

Not applicable chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–
Cancelled
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at SAN that day

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 740 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAN?