Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9460 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Yesterday

AS 9460 · SEA → GSO

departs 10:17 AM PT · arrives 6:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GSO?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at GSO that day

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ GSO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.94 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9460 · SEA → GSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSO?