Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9681 IN THE AIR (OFF 2:34 AM MT, ETA 5:26 AM HT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 11 Today

AS 9681 · PHX → HNL

took off 2:34 AM MT · expected to land 5:26 AM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt forecast at PHX that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts35 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

HNL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9681 · PHX → HNL

Odds over time