Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9719 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Today

AS 9719 · SJC → SFO

departs 8:39 AM PT · arrives 9:26 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ 8am departures from SJC are usually not late

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9719 · SJC → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?