B6 255 · JFK → PLS

took off 10:28 AM ET · expected to land 1:27 PM EDT (scheduled 9:34 AM ET → 1:14 PM EDT)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PLS more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PLS?

LIVE

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
53%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PLS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.98 in

PLS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 255 · JFK → PLS

Odds over time

How late will it get to PLS?