B6 887 · JFK → SXM

took off 9:28 AM ET · landed 12:54 PM AST (scheduled 9:11 AM ET → 1:14 PM AST)

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SXM more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SXM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SXM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling750 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.04 in

SXM (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 887 · JFK → SXM

Odds over time

How late did it get to SXM?