Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 3262
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
C5 3262 · ALB → IAD
departs 11:09 AM ET · arrives 12:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ALB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late
↓
IAD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ALB (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.30 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 2.83 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.