C5 4233 · IAD → MYR

took off 9:07 AM ET · landed 10:18 AM ET (scheduled 8:26 AM ET → 10:02 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MYR more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MYR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MYR that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ MYR usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.28 in

MYR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4233 · IAD → MYR

Odds over time

How late did it get to MYR?