C5 4242 · GSP → IAD

took off 8:01 PM ET · expected to land 9:06 PM ET (scheduled 7:30 PM ET → 9:18 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi, 2.3 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at GSP that day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

GSP (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.29 in

IAD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip2.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4242 · GSP → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?