C5 4244 · IAD → BTV

took off 1:25 PM ET · landed 2:30 PM ET (scheduled 12:25 PM ET → 2:05 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at BTV more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BTV?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 3.1 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ BTV usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BTV

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip2.08 in

BTV (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,520 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4244 · IAD → BTV

Odds over time

How late did it get to BTV?