C5 4274 · IAD → DAY

departs 5:19 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DAY?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAY that day

↓ DAY usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip1.92 in

DAY (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4274 · IAD → DAY

Odds over time

How late will it get to DAY?