C5 4283 · CAE → IAD

took off 11:43 AM ET · expected to land 12:50 PM ET (scheduled 10:21 AM ET → 12:05 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
<1%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
78%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at CAE that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CAE (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.16 in

IAD (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip2.66 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4283 · CAE → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?