Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4916
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 11 Today
C5 4916 · IAH → MFE
departs 9:59 AM CT · arrives 11:26 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
9am departures from IAH are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Arrivals into MFE at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MFE (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.