CA 987 · PEK → LAX

departs 1:29 PM CST · arrives 9:41 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±6 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PEK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PEK (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CA 987 · PEK → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?