Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 4, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CHINA · FLIGHT CA 988 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 11 Tomorrow

CA 988 · LAX → PEK

departs 2:20 PM PT · arrives 7:07 PM CST

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at PEK more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PEK?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PEK

↓ CA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.33 in

PEK (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CA 988 · LAX → PEK

Odds over time

How late will it get to PEK?