Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

CHINA AIRLINES · FLIGHT CI 5301 LANDED 11:09 AM EDT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 11 Yesterday

CI 5301 · JFK → YYZ

took off 9:57 AM ET · landed 11:09 AM EDT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JFK that day

↑ 9am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YYZ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling780 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.24 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CI 5301 · JFK → YYZ

Odds over time