CM 239 · MCO → PTY

took off 12:09 PM ET · expected to land 1:56 PM EST (scheduled 11:54 AM ET → 2:20 PM EST)

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PTY?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ 11am departures from MCO are often late

↓ PTY usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 239 · MCO → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?