CM 306 · LAX → PTY

took off 2:29 AM PT · expected to land 10:21 AM EST (scheduled 2:22 AM PT → 10:41 AM EST)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PTY?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at LAX that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PTY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 306 · LAX → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?