CM 383 · SFO → PTY

took off 2:28 AM PT · landed 10:52 AM EST (scheduled 1:19 AM PT → 10:23 AM EST)

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PTY?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1am departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 383 · SFO → PTY

Odds over time

How late did it get to PTY?